Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Indian Pharma: Rx Consolidation

Indian Pharma sector has been long under performing compared to various other sectors. This under performance is attributed to several reasons such as eroding margins in the US generic business, weakening dollar etc. The chart shows the beating Pharma stocks have taken on the NSE.

Indian pharma companies are very good at producing quality generic drugs with continuous improvement and are also amongst the lowest cost manufacturers in the world. These companies are very similar in their operations, business model and to a large extent in the skill sets too. This seems to me the predominant reason for current under performance as these companies are competing fiercely not only in domestic market but also in the export market. This high competition is largely responsible for reducing margins and conceding all the 'low cost' Indian advantage to the world. The competition in the world generic market is further heating up and smaller Indian companies cannot sustain for long unless they get strong backup from Indian market.
With many players around the world going after generics, the margins are ought to fall. Companies are doing cross border M&A to access newer markets and capabilities. But this phenomena is causing problems because all companies in a way are becoming similar. Even the name is 'generics' but there is a critical need among companies to differentiate and to build scale. Acquiring companies abroad will help Indian companies in accessing new markets and counter the weak dollar effect, but to deal with margin pressures lot of domestic 'big deals' would be required. Currently there are some 15+ companies supplying bulk drugs largely to US market and it makes a very good case for these companies to come together and benefit from economies of scale to efficiently manufacture while also efficiently maintain large R&D pipelines.

but why is it already not happening?

Almost all Indian pharma companies are family owned. Is this ownership structure impeding domestic M&A?

A similar situation can be soon expected in IT sector also when margins will start shrinking when Indian service providers start competing vigorously against one another. But will we see M&A sooner there for them being largely professional companies?

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Jaguar & Land Rover in Rs 1 lakh

Whats the Tata strategy?

One on end Tata is pushing for the highest end of Jaguar and Land Rover while on the another is the Tata's "bottom of the pyramid" much hyped Rs 1 Lakh car. Is Tata spreading itself too thin or there is some deliberate thought behind? Lets think about it...

1 Lakh car is primarily for India and other India like emerging economies. Its more about the scale economics and knock down costs by fully redesigning and probably redefining what we know now as a car. The whole supply chain has to improve efficiency by order of magnitudes if the output has to be a car. Also technologically the fuel efficiency of this cars has to be improved by leaps and bounds such that it is not just a cheap car like Mauti 800 (even cheaper) but is overall a "bottom of the pyramid" car with lower total monthly cost of ownership. It will need to have fuel efficiencies closer to a two wheeler to compete in the market where at the lower side two wheelers owners look for flexibility and costs while at the higher side maruti 800 owners look for convenience and also the cost. If Tata has to sell its cars then it has to marry the two segments. Put together a car which is low cost but also offer convenience and flexibility. It should not be a car competing against a 3 yr old Maruti 800 available in second hand market for prices closer to Rs 1 lakh. No fun there!

So do Mr. Tata have the technology for a car with fuel efficiencies more than 40 KM per liter?

If he does not... I doubt the success of 1 Lakh car.
If he do.. then I believe we should long tata motors stock as not only 1 lakh car but also the Land Rovers and the Jaguars are going to do very well!

Why Rover and Jaguar? The biggest problem with these money loosing highly aspirational brands is the "gas guzzler" nature embedded deep in the very design of these 'cars'. If the 1 lakh car fuel technology can be applied here.. then we have at our hands a premium car which is as fuel efficient as a normal car. It is then the aspiration brand value in these brands will kick in and Tata can have winning proposition at hand.